Mortgage & Housing Update 7/25/2025

Thinking about buying a home but unsure if it’s the right time? 🤔 Despite rising inventory, home sales are stuck, competition is easing, and buyers like you are regaining negotiating power. Meanwhile, the market overwhelmingly expects the Fed to stay on pause next week when they meet on July 30. 

 In this update, I’ll break down what’s really happening in the housing and mortgage market—and what smart buyers should do next.

👇 Be sure to download my free Mortgage Readiness Checklist

🤩 I am Pauline Lee, a real estate professional, with an expertise in financing. Connect with me through the links provided for a consultation and to get mortgage ready. I encourage you to get pre-approved.

Pauline Lee, Licensed MLO nmls# 674113 | pauline@indmortgage.com | (508) 525-5415 | https://www.indmortgage.com/mortgagehousingupdate20250725

Housing Market Overview

Let’s start with the housing market. 

In June 2025, existing home sales are still stuck at 3.93 million units annually. That’s down 2.7% month over month, and flat YoY. For perspective, that’s the same pace as 2008—when the U.S. had 70 million fewer people. Today’s volume should be closer to 5–5.5 million. The culprit? High prices and mortgage rates near 7%, which are keeping many buyers on the sidelines even though inventory is rising.

Few bidding wars: The average number of offers per home dropped to 2.4 in June 2025, down from 2.5 in May 2025 and 2.9 in June 2024. Compare that to 3.3 offers per home in June 2023. This is a clear sign that competition is cooling down.

Price pressure is easing: Homes sold above the asking price was only 21% in June, well below 28% in May 2025 and 29% in June 2024. Down sharply from over 50% in 2022!

Homes are lingering on the market longer: Days on Market measures the median days a home takes to sell. In June, DOM rose to 27, flat vs last month. But one whole week longer than the 22 DOM last year. Further compare 18 DOM in June 2023, and 14 DOM or 2 weeks June 2022. Higher DOM means that homes are lingering on the market longer, which means buyers are regaining some negotiating power. 

NAR Confidence Index: Every month, the NAR surveys Realtors on their outlook of the buyer vs seller activity. Over the past 2 years buyer vs seller activity was balanced. More recent surveys see competition flipping towards the buyer. In some regions, buyers already have the upper hand. 

Let’s summarize what this all means…Buyer Power is Returning

• Lower number of offers per home = Fewer Bidding Wars
• Less homes sold above asking price = Price Pressure Easing
• Higher Days on Market = the longer a home lingers on market, the more a Seller is open to negotiations. 

All This points to a shift: for the first time since the pandemic, buyers are regaining negotiating leverage.

Bond & Mortgage Market

Now let’s talk Rates. 

The Fed has been on pause since early 2025, and most experts expect no change when they meet on July 30. Why the pause?

📊 First, Inflation is stuck at +2.7%, still above the Fed’s 2% target.

💼 Second, The job market remains strong, with unemployment holding at 4.1%.

This means the Fed is playing it safe by keeping rates steady, despite considerable political pressure to cut rates from President Trump and others. But the Fed is meant to be independent, and the majority of Fed members still believe that the economic data supports keeping interest rates high to avoid a resurgence in inflation.

The bond market expects no rate cut in July, and a small chance of one in September and October. Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. 

• July 30 FOMC Meeting: 97% probability of no rate cut.
• September 17 FOMC Meeting: 61% probability of 25 bps rate cut. 37% probability that rates will remain unchanged.
• October 29 FOMC Meeting: 31% probability of another rate cut. 19% probability that rates will remain unchanged.

What Smart Buyers should do.

If you’re waiting for rates to drop significantly before you buy — you could be waiting a while.
But here’s the thing: timing the bottom perfectly is impossible. The smarter move is to buy when:

• ✅ You find the right home
• ✅ You can negotiate favorable terms
• ✅ You can afford the monthly payment

And when rates drop? Refinance. I help my clients navigate that process with ease.

Want a personalized mortgage strategy? Book a free consultation with me today! Don’t go it alone when it comes to navigating today’s mortgage landscape. Click the link below to book a free 15-minute consultation with me. We’ll discuss your options and how to make the most of the current market.

Thanks for tuning into my Mortgage & Housing Update. [source: List Reports] With inventory rising, competition cooling, and rates holding steady, now could be a great time to take the next step in your home buying journey.

 “The market is finally shifting in your favor, but opportunity favors the prepared.
📲 Let’s connect for a no-pressure consultation. Whether you’re ready to buy today or just planning ahead, I’ll help you map out your homeownership strategy.

 👉 Schedule your free call using the link in the description.
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🤩 I am Pauline Lee, a real estate professional, with an expertise in financing. Connect with me for a consultation and to get mortgage ready. I encourage you to get pre-approved.

Pauline Lee, Licensed MLO nmls# 674113 | pauline@indmortgage.com | (508) 525-5415 | https://www.indmortgage.com/mortgagehousingupdate20250725